USD/INR rises toward record high ahead of RBI
Rupee weakens as safe‑haven dollar demand lifts the pair; the Reserve Bank of India decision on October 7, 2026 is the next key catalyst.
Mateo Fernandez ·
USD/INR climbed above 96.10 on Monday, edging toward the all‑time high of 97.33 as safe‑haven flows strengthened the US dollar.
RBI decision October 7, 2026 Traders said the dollar's strength reflected risk‑off moves linked to wider European sovereign spreads, particularly on French debt, and a prolonged US‑Iran stalemate that kept geopolitical risk priced into the greenback. Data showed August consumer price inflation in India rose to 4.82%, and swap markets were pricing in a policy rate increase by the Reserve Bank of India this week.
Market participants flagged oil as a persistent structural headwind for the rupee because higher import bills raise dollar demand and widen the trade deficit. Technical analysis in the wire noted the pair has broken past a major resistance zone around 96.10, with the natural upside target the record 97.33 and near‑term support at 95.75.
Traders said positioning ahead of the RBI decision has amplified moves: bidders leaned on an upward trendline on shorter timeframes, while sellers are awaiting a confirmed break below that line before committing to a correction.
Watch the RBI decision on Wednesday, October 7, 2026: traders say a rate increase would probably ease dollar demand and allow USD/INR to test 95.10, while no hike would likely leave the pair elevated toward 97.33.