UNDP warns Ebola outbreak may cut Africa GDP

The United Nations Development Programme said an Ebola outbreak could cost Africa up to $3.6 billion in economic losses, raising the risk that a health emergency becomes a broader development shock across parts of the continent. Reaction pending.

UNDP’s $3.6 billion downside scenario

UNDP said the outbreak could push close to an additional 1 million people into poverty in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where it said six out of ten people live under the poverty line. It also warned the outbreak could put more than 300,000 jobs at risk if it worsens.

Officials said the Bundibugyo strain has infected 1,307 people and killed 377 in Congo since the outbreak was declared on May 15. A smaller number of cases have been reported in Uganda, and UNDP warned about the possibility of spread to other neighboring countries.

UNDP outlined three scenarios. In the best case, where the epidemic remains contained in Congo and Uganda, UNDP said the cost would be about $1 billion to Congo’s GDP. In the worst case, where the disease spreads to countries including Rwanda and Angola and coincides with higher fuel costs linked to the Iran crisis, UNDP said continental GDP could be cut by $3.6 billion with job losses of about 328,000.

UNDP said the path depends on resourcing and speed of the response, warning that delays could amplify cross-border disruption through labor markets, transport, and trade. The next formal marker for escalation risk is the week of July 7, 2026, when officials are expected to provide an updated case count and response funding status.