Mideast Strife Fuels Qantas Jet Cost Surge

Middle East conflict lifts jet fuel costs for Qantas

Escalating conflict in the Middle East is rippling through global energy markets, pushing fuel prices higher and raising concerns about longer-lasting economic strain, according to international organizations and corporate disclosures.

On Tuesday, April 14, 2026, Qantas, Australia’s national airline, said it expects jet fuel costs to rise by as much as A$800 million (US$570 million) in the second half of the year because of the conflict. The company linked the outlook to a sharp jump in jet fuel prices, which it said have more than doubled and become “extremely volatile.”

International financial and energy institutions have also warned that the price shock could persist. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the world could face a continuing oil shock, with knock-on effects that extend beyond transport fuels.

Officials said damage to energy facilities in the conflict zone could keep fuel and fertilizer prices elevated for an extended period. Those warnings underscore how disruptions in one region can transmit quickly through global supply chains, affecting costs for airlines, logistics providers, and other fuel-intensive industries, while also influencing input prices tied to agriculture.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, described the current disruptions to oil supplies as “the greatest energy security challenge in history.” He said the IEA is monitoring 80 Middle East energy facilities and that one-third of them have sustained damage.

Birol added that the situation could worsen further in April, pointing to the risk of additional escalation. The IEA’s facility monitoring and the assessments from the IMF and World Bank highlight uncertainty around how long supply disruptions may last and how quickly damaged infrastructure can be restored.

For markets, the immediate focus remains on the pace and scale of supply interruptions and how they translate into refined fuel prices such as jet fuel. For policymakers and businesses, the key unknown is duration: whether the conflict-driven shock fades quickly or becomes a longer period of elevated energy and fertilizer costs, as the international organizations cautioned.