Oil Nears $150 as Hormuz Crisis Intensifies

Physical crude oil prices for immediate delivery have surged toward $150 a barrel as European and Asian refiners scramble for supply following disruption linked to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the figures and assessments cited. The jump in spot cargo values has outpaced futures, highlighting a widening gap between paper benchmarks and the cost of securing prompt barrels in the real market.

Officials and market participants have pointed to a sharp loss of Middle East output and exports tied to the conflict and shipping constraints through Hormuz. The disruption has shut in about 12 million barrels per day, described as roughly 12% of global oil supply, tightening availability for refiners that rely on regular flows from the region.

Futures prices have risen, but the most acute stress is showing up in physical differentials and dated pricing. Brent futures reached $119.50 per barrel last month, the highest level since 2022, while remaining below the 2008 record of $147.50. In contrast, competition for replacement crude from Europe and Africa has pushed up the cost of cargoes that can be delivered quickly, reflecting the premium buyers are willing to pay to keep refineries supplied.

North Sea Forties, a key grade in the Brent complex, has been a focal point of the rally. The outright price of Forties hit an all-time high of $146.09 per barrel on Tuesday, according to LSEG data, exceeding its 2008 level. Forties is linked to dated Brent, and the cited pricing shows dated Brent trading nearly $20 above June Brent futures, a structure that signals unusually strong demand for prompt physical barrels relative to forward delivery.

Assessments of dated Brent have also climbed close to historic peaks. S&P Global Energy Platts assessed dated Brent at $141.365 on April 2, near its 2008 record of $144.22. With Forties and other physical cargoes priced off dated Brent, the assessment implies effective prices for some prompt barrels moving above $150 when combined with prevailing differentials and delivery timing.

The immediate market focus remains on how quickly refiners can replace disrupted Middle East supply and how long constraints around the Strait of Hormuz persist. While futures provide a global reference, the current dislocation underscores that the tightest conditions are concentrated in near-term physical availability, where buyers must compete for cargoes that can arrive soon.