Oil Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict

Global oil prices surged over 7% on Thursday, March 12, 2026, following an escalation in the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) identified as the largest supply disruption in global oil market history. International Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel, and U.S. crude exceeded $95 per barrel after Iran's Supreme Leader suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit point.

The conflict led to reported attacks on tankers near Iraq and the evacuation of an oil export terminal in Oman, causing Iraq to suspend oil terminal operations. These events deepened concerns about a prolonged conflict and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world's daily energy supply typically transits. Ship traffic has significantly decreased, and the IEA warned of increasing supply losses if shipping flows do not resume rapidly.

U.S. crude oil prices have risen over 40% since the war's onset, with retail gasoline prices increasing by nearly 70 cents to $3.59 per gallon since March 1. Despite a collective agreement by 32 IEA member countries to release 400 million barrels of oil, including 172 million barrels from the U.S. starting next week, market prices did not immediately decline. Analysts project oil prices could exceed 2008 peaks if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist through March.