Oil Volatility Surges on Trump's Iran Stance

Oil prices moved sharply on March 31, 2026, as traders reacted to fresh signals from U.S. President Donald Trump about a possible end to the Iran war. In European trading, Brent crude briefly slipped below $100 per barrel before rebounding, underscoring how quickly sentiment is shifting around headlines tied to the conflict.

By the session’s reported levels, Brent crude futures for June delivery were down 1.7% at $102.25 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 2.4% to $98.92 per barrel. The pullback came after a period of elevated prices that followed the war’s outbreak in late February.

Prices had surged to around $120 a barrel after the conflict began, compared with roughly $70 a barrel before hostilities. The latest moves highlight how the market is weighing the possibility of de-escalation against ongoing risks to supply routes and regional stability.

Trump said on Tuesday that the United States could leave the conflict within “two to three weeks,” and added that Iran does not necessarily need a deal for the fighting to end. Tehran disputed elements of the U.S. narrative, but Iran also acknowledged that communication is continuing. Iranian officials said they would be willing to end the war if guarantees are provided against future attacks.

The White House said Trump would deliver a presidential address on Wednesday with an “important update on Iran.” Earlier in the week, a report said Trump was open to stopping U.S. military action against Iran without a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a key chokepoint for about one-fifth of global oil supply, making any change in access or security conditions a central driver of pricing.

Even with talk of a potential U.S. withdrawal, the Strait of Hormuz has remained a major constraint. Traffic has been heavily disrupted by threats of Iranian attacks, which has helped keep upward pressure on crude despite day-to-day volatility. The market response suggests participants are balancing the prospect of reduced military activity against the practical question of whether flows can normalize.

On the demand and inventory side, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude stocks rose by 10.26 million barrels last week. That contrasted with expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel draw, a surprise that pointed to weaker demand and added to downward pressure on prices.