HSBC trims average gold forecasts for 2026 and 2027
The bank lowered its mean price outlook, citing firmer dollar and slower central-bank buying as drivers.
Mateo Fernandez ·
HSBC said on Thursday it has lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, blaming a stronger dollar and a slowdown in official sector purchases for the downgrade. Reaction pending.
HSBC cites dollar strength and slower buying
HSBC’s move came after another large bank trimmed long-term gold forecasts earlier this month. The bank described the combination of tighter policy signaling from major central banks and subdued physical demand as the primary rationale for lowering its mean assumptions for the next two years.
Markets that track gold prices and related ETFs are likely to reassess positioning as bank forecasts tighten, while jewelry and retail demand will remain sensitive to price momentum. Commodity-focused portfolios may shift allocation if forecasts from multiple large institutions stay lower.
Expect attention on flows and policy through the remainder of 2026: watch central-bank purchase data and dollar strength through year-end 2026 as the key variables that will determine whether forecasts are revised again.
The bank said its revision follows a shift in monetary-policy expectations that has pushed real rates higher, reducing gold’s opportunity as an inflation hedge. HSBC added that central-bank net purchases have moderated, removing a structural support that helped prices in prior years.