Gulf oil exports return; Brent stays elevated

Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports, including so-called dark shipments, reached 23.3 million barrels a day last week, restoring flows to 2025 averages while dated Brent held near $120.

JPMorgan's 10-day average put Gulf exports at 20.5 million barrels a day, or about 89% of 2025 levels, with most of the difference reflecting how much of the dark fleet each desk counts.

Hormuz throughput and product shortfall

Both banks said the recovery happened despite supply disruptions: the Saudi east–west pipeline was hit and flows to Yanbu were cut for nearly two weeks, and Houthi actions continue to constrain shipments at Bab al-Mandab. JPMorgan reported Hormuz-linked movements back near late-June highs of almost 13 million barrels a day, led by Saudi flows.

Analysts flagged a divergence between crude and products. Goldman put crude exports at about 19.0 mb/d, or 108% of the 2025 average, while JPMorgan counted 17.5 mb/d, or 98% of pre-conflict levels. By contrast, exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are running at roughly 50% of normal by Goldman's tally and about 58% by JPMorgan's.

JPMorgan said shipping rates reflect that split: Hormuz-linked VLCC charters are near $1.27 million a day, and older VLCCs are valued above $150 million versus about $135 million for a newbuild, pushing a per-barrel risk premium higher for products than for crude.

Goldman projects Brent will decline to $85 by December 31, 2026, while noting visible inventories were broadly flat in September and OECD commercial stocks are back to late-February levels, a dynamic that supports rebuilding demand for storage and a near-term risk premium.