Futures track oil prices lower before Iran briefing today

Oil prices fell 1.76% Monday, pulling Treasury yields lower as traders awaited Washington’s planned Iran pressure briefing.

Brent crude traded at $91.04, down $1.63 on the session, putting the benchmark on pace to end six straight sessions of gains. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.710%; bond prices rise when yields decline.

U.S. stock futures opened the week lower, with technology contracts leading the move. E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures were down 158.25 points, or 0.54%, to 29,229.50, compared with a 0.14% drop in E-mini S&P 500 futures and a 0.03% slip in E-mini Dow futures.

Brent breaks six-session rise

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to lay out a tougher economic campaign against Iran later Monday, according to the market note. The plan was described in the note as an economic D-Day on Iran, language that points to sanctions or financial pressure as the near-term policy focus.

The dollar paused after its recent slide, while crude retreated from its run-up. For bond markets, the sequence matters: lower oil can reduce the immediate inflation impulse that investors price into yields, particularly when energy costs are already tied to geopolitical risk.

The Iran element gives the commodity move a policy channel rather than a purely supply-demand frame. If Washington’s plan targets exports, shipping, finance or enforcement, traders will judge whether it tightens actual barrels on the market or mainly raises compliance costs.

Alibaba sale hits Asia tech

Asian technology shares weakened before the U.S. open, adding pressure to Nasdaq-linked futures. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. fell more than 8% in Hong Kong after launching a $10.2 billion share sale to help finance artificial intelligence spending.

The Alibaba transaction puts a clear price on the sector’s AI funding race. A discounted equity sale can bring in cash for data centers, chips and model development, but it also dilutes existing shareholders unless the spending produces faster growth later.

Samsung Electronics also dropped more than 8% in South Korea after approving a shareholder return plan of up to about $79 billion. The plan was the company’s largest such program, according to the market note, but the shares fell after the announcement missed market expectations.

SoftBank declined more than 5% in Tokyo as the Japanese technology group prepared a record retail bond issue to help fund expanding AI investments. In U.S. premarket trading, Marvell Technology, Micron Technology and Intel also lost ground, extending the weaker tone across chip-linked shares.

Crypto-linked equities were softer as well. Coinbase Global, Robinhood Markets and Strategy slipped after bitcoin stalled near $77,000, an anchor level reached after last week’s rally.

Nvidia and Fed tests ahead

The week’s next market test comes from Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, which will give investors a fresh read on AI chip demand. The same day, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge is due, creating a second data point for traders weighing growth, rates and equity valuations.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday, giving rate markets another event to price after the inflation release. If the inflation gauge comes in firmer than expected, yields may rise as investors price a slower easing path; if it softens, lower yields could support longer-duration technology shares.

For the global macro picture, the oil path is the first variable. If Brent’s pullback holds, the immediate pressure on headline inflation would ease; if Iran-related measures threaten supply, energy prices could reprice higher and complicate central bank decisions.

For Alibaba, the test is whether the $10.2 billion raise translates into AI capacity that investors can measure in revenue, margins or cloud demand. For the wider technology sector, the mechanism is funding cost: companies relying on equity or debt to finance AI spending will face closer scrutiny if rates stay elevated and shareholder returns disappoint.