How the Strait of Hormuz closure is boosting Russia mineral extraction tax revenue

Russia is set to collect a sharp rise in its main oil-related tax revenue in April 2026 , with proceeds projected at about 700 billion roubles ($9 billion), according to analysis based on early production data and current oil prices. Officials have not announced a new tax rate, but the expected jump is tied to how Russia’s mineral extraction tax is calculated from oil price benchmarks.

The revenue outlook follows an oil and gas crisis that began after a U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran. The conflict led to Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime corridor that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. After the disruption, Brent crude futures moved above $100 per barrel, tightening global energy markets and lifting prices used in tax formulas.

The immediate driver for Russia’s tax intake is the surge in the Urals crude price , the benchmark used for taxation. In March, Urals averaged $77 per barrel, up 73% from $44.59 per barrel in February. The March level also exceeded the $59 per barrel assumption built into Russia’s 2026 state budget, meaning the government’s oil-price baseline for planning was overtaken by market reality.

With Urals higher, the mineral extraction tax on oil output is expected to rise to around 700 billion roubles in April, compared with 327 billion roubles in March. The analysis described Russia as the world’s second-largest oil exporter, positioning the country to benefit fiscally when global crude prices climb, even as the broader market faces supply and shipping uncertainty.

Russia’s wider fiscal picture remains strained despite the projected windfall . In the first quarter of 2026, the budget deficit reached 4.58 trillion roubles, equal to 1.9% of GDP. Separately, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure were cited as an ongoing risk to production and exports, which could affect volumes even if prices stay elevated.

How long the revenue boost lasts will depend on the duration and trajectory of the Iran crisis. For global markets, the episode underscores how chokepoint disruptions can rapidly reprice crude and, in turn, reshape government revenues for major exporters whose tax systems are linked to benchmark prices.