Physical Oil Prices Reach Record Highs Despite US-Iran Ceasefire and Falling Futures

Physical crude oil prices in European and African markets climbed to unprecedented levels in London on Wednesday, April 9, 2026, even as benchmark futures fell sharply after a ceasefire announcement involving the United States and Iran. The move highlighted a widening gap between barrels changing hands in the spot market and paper contracts used as global benchmarks.

Officials said a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran was announced on Tuesday. Following that news, Brent futures dropped 13% and WTI futures fell 16%, with both contracts moving below $100 per barrel. Despite the futures selloff, physical crude values continued to rise, pointing to ongoing tightness in prompt supply.

Data compiled by LSEG showed North Sea Forties crude reached an all-time high of $146.43 per barrel on Thursday. Dated Brent, a key reference price for more than 60% of crude oil traded globally, was reported to be changing hands at nearly $27 above June Brent futures. Forties also set a record premium of $20.25 over dated Brent on Wednesday, underscoring how strongly buyers were bidding for immediate deliveries.

The strength was not limited to Forties. Other major North Sea grades—Brent, Oseberg, Ekofisk, and Troll—also recorded record premiums, according to the information provided. In the Atlantic Basin, U.S. WTI Midland delivered into Europe was reported trading at a premium of $20.70 to dated Brent, reinforcing the theme that refiners were seeking alternatives to Middle East-linked supply.

Market participants attributed the surge in physical prices to firm demand from refiners in Asia and Europe for crude sourced from outside the Middle East. That demand has been amplified by Iran’s continued near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and by recent assaults on energy infrastructure across the region, officials and analysts said. The combination has kept supply chains disrupted even as futures markets reacted to the ceasefire headline.

Analysts projected that fully restoring the supply chain could take several months, which could keep the physical market elevated relative to futures for an extended period. The divergence suggests traders are still pricing in sustained interruptions to crude availability in the near term, even while longer-dated expectations embedded in futures have eased.