Quaest poll shows Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro tied in runoff

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in a simulated runoff ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election, according to a Quaest poll commissioned by Genial and released on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. The survey pointed to a narrow contest after movement since April. It also found Lula leading in a first-round scenario.

In the hypothetical second round, Lula would receive 42% of the vote and Bolsonaro 41%, within the poll’s margin of error. In an April poll, Bolsonaro had 42% to Lula’s 40%, the survey showed.

In a first-round simulation, the poll put Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro at 33%. Former right-wing state governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema were each at 4%, according to the results.

Poll details and margin of error

The survey was conducted between May 8 and May 11 and included 2,004 respondents. It had a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction.

Because the second-round figures fall inside that margin, the poll described the two candidates as statistically tied. The results reflect a close race that remains fluid months before voting begins.

How Brazil’s presidential election system works

Brazil holds a second-round vote between the top two candidates if no one receives more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. Under that rule, the first-round standings can shape coalition-building and campaign strategy ahead of a potential runoff.

Brazil’s national election is scheduled for October. Future polls will be watched for confirmation of whether the shift since April persists and whether the first-round gap narrows or widens.