Aussie Dollar Slips Before RBA Minutes

The Australian dollar fell Monday before Reserve Bank of Australia minutes due Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. Sydney time, with rate expectations still central to the currency.

The central bank announced in September that its Monetary Policy Board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, the fourth increase of the cycle. Officials said inflation remained too high, while the economy was slowing and the labor market was easing too gradually to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe.

RBA minutes test 4.60% path

CBA said the minutes should show how seriously the board considered holding rates steady, and whether they match the softer tone Governor Michele Bullock used after the decision. The bank sees a higher bar for more tightening, while Westpac forecasts another 25 basis-point increase to 4.85% by December.

Data showed Westpac’s consumer sentiment index fell 4.7% to 80.4 in October, close to the weakest readings in the survey’s history, after the September rate rise. Labor data for August showed employment rose by around 40,000, while unemployment climbed to 4.6%, the highest since late 2021, as participation rose to 67.1%.

For September, Westpac expects 20,000 new jobs, matching consensus, with unemployment unchanged at 4.6%. CBA expects a 10,000 gain and the same jobless rate, while warning that survey sample changes may make the print noisier than usual.

If the minutes sound firmer, wider rate differentials may support the Australian dollar. If officials stress delayed policy effects or Thursday’s labor data weaken, the case for further tightening would narrow. The next dated marker is Thursday, October 15, at 11:30 a.m. Sydney time, when September labor figures are released.