Asian stocks rise as US jobs data eases Fed pressure today

Asian stocks rose 0.5% as softer US jobs data trimmed Fed hike bets, lifting tech shares while oil gave back early gains. Bonds rose too.

The MSCI Asia Pacific equities index gained 0.5% from its previous close, with Japan setting the pace in a thinner regional session. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rallied about 2% from its prior close as technology shares advanced, while markets in South Korea and mainland China were shut for holidays.

Nikkei carries tech rebound

Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4% after the underlying US gauge closed at a record high Friday. The move kept attention on large technology names and artificial intelligence-linked spending, a theme that has supported indexes even as gains have been less evenly spread across individual stocks.

Friday's US jobs report showed employers added fewer workers than forecast in September and wage growth slowed. Money markets assigned less than a 25% probability to a 25bp Federal Reserve increase in October, a below one-in-four pricing that eased pressure on rate-sensitive assets.

Shane Oliver, chief economist and head of investment strategy at AMP Ltd., said the labor figures pointed to a less urgent case for another rate increase. "Not too hot, not too cold Goldilocks jobs data for September add to expectations that the Fed won’t rush into another rate hike this month," Oliver wrote in a note.

Brent slips below earlier peak

Brent crude for December delivery slipped 0.2% to about $102 a barrel, down from an intraday move above $103. The reversal followed early gains after Yemen launched an effort to retake areas controlled by the Houthis, keeping geopolitical risk in the energy market without sustaining the morning advance.

US Treasuries rose modestly across the curve, with the 10-year yield down one basis point to 5.26% from the prior session. Bond prices move inversely to yields, so the fall in yields marked a limited reprieve after benchmark 10-year rates last week reached their highest level since 2002.

The bond rebound came after a months-long selloff tied to persistent inflation concerns, government spending and heavier corporate borrowing linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure. Higher yields have raised the discount rate applied to future earnings, a mechanism that tends to weigh most directly on long-duration growth stocks.

Brazil vote moves Tokyo ETF

A Brazilian exchange-traded fund listed in Japan rose 7.6% from its previous close after Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil's presidential election. Futures on the real also gained, indicating investors were repricing political risk across Brazil-linked assets.

Gold was little changed after recording its biggest weekly loss since June. The metal had been pressured by higher bond yields, which increase the relative appeal of income-bearing assets, even as traders priced a lower chance of an October Fed move.

Fed pricing faces jobs test

If September's labor signal holds through the next inflation and payroll readings, the global macro effect would be lower pressure on US yields and a steadier backdrop for risk assets. For the Nikkei and other technology-heavy benchmarks, that would reduce valuation pressure; for the wider chip and software supply chain, it would support financing conditions for AI-related investment.

If inflation data instead push traders back toward another Fed increase, the mechanism would run through higher yields, lower bond prices and tighter financial conditions. That would test the latest advance in Asian stocks, leave oil more exposed to demand concerns, and make the regional technology rally more dependent on earnings rather than rate relief.