Arab states should beware of Israel’s hegemonic energy expansion

Israel has emerged as a pivotal energy supplier in the Middle East, particularly through its natural gas exports to neighboring Jordan and Egypt. This strategic position grants Israel considerable influence over regional energy flows, impacting nations like Syria that rely on gas transiting through these countries. The reliance on Israeli gas became acutely apparent in March 2026 when disruptions in Israeli production led to immediate supply challenges for its partners.

Egypt, despite its own gas production capabilities, has become a significant importer of Israeli natural gas. In 2024, Egypt's domestic gas output decreased to 49.3 billion cubic meters. Concurrently, its gas imports surged to a record 14.6 billion cubic meters, with approximately 10 billion cubic meters originating from Israel. This substantial import volume highlights Egypt's growing dependence on Israeli supplies to meet its energy demands.

Jordan faces an even more pronounced energy deficit, producing less than 5% of its required natural gas. The country imports around 3.6 billion cubic meters annually, predominantly from Israel. Both Jordan and Egypt utilize the Arab Gas Pipeline, a critical piece of infrastructure originally conceived for regional Arab energy cooperation, to transport Israeli gas.

Supply Disruptions Highlight Dependence

When Israel temporarily ceased gas production from its Leviathan field, both Jordan and Egypt experienced immediate and significant supply shortfalls. This disruption necessitated the activation of emergency energy protocols in both nations. The cessation of these Israeli gas flows directly affected their capacity to supply Syria, which receives gas via the Arab Gas Pipeline network.

This incident underscored the structural energy dependence of these Arab states on Israeli gas. Even with alternative energy sources or domestic production, the stability of the regional energy system is now intrinsically linked to the consistent flow of Israeli exports. This dynamic provides Israel with substantial political and economic leverage within the region.

Historical Context of Regional Energy

The Arab Gas Pipeline, operational since the early 2000s, was initially envisioned to foster energy independence and cooperation among Arab nations, connecting Egypt's gas fields to Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. However, the discovery and development of significant offshore gas reserves in Israel, such as the Leviathan field, have fundamentally altered this regional energy landscape.

Israel's entry as a major exporter has repurposed existing infrastructure and shifted traditional energy supply routes.

This evolving energy matrix has geopolitical implications, as energy security becomes intertwined with diplomatic relations. The consistent supply of natural gas is crucial for industrial operations, power generation, and domestic consumption in importing nations. Therefore, any interruption can have cascading economic and social effects, amplifying the strategic importance of the supplier.

Future Outlook and Diversification

The current reliance on Israeli gas prompts questions about future energy diversification strategies for Jordan and Egypt. While Israeli gas offers a readily available and geographically proximate source, the concentration of supply from a single, politically sensitive origin presents inherent vulnerabilities.

Efforts to explore new domestic reserves, invest in renewable energy, or secure alternative import routes could become priorities for these nations to enhance their energy resilience and reduce geopolitical exposure.

Ultimately, Israel's established role as a central energy provider in the Middle East is a defining feature of contemporary regional dynamics. The interplay between energy needs, existing infrastructure, and geopolitical considerations will continue to shape alliances and policies across the Levant and North Africa.

Implications

Country Impact: Jordan and Egypt face increased energy dependence on Israel, impacting their energy security and potentially their foreign policy decisions. Syria's energy supply is indirectly affected by disruptions in Israeli gas flows to these transit countries.

Industry Impact: The energy sector in the Middle East is undergoing a significant transformation, with Israel becoming a key player. This shift affects regional energy infrastructure utilization and investment in alternative energy sources.

Market Impact: Regional energy markets are increasingly influenced by Israeli gas production and export policies. Fluctuations in Israeli supply can lead to price volatility and supply shortages for importing nations, impacting their economic stability.