Poll shows Yavaş, İmamoğlu ahead of Erdoğan

A public opinion survey conducted between 1 and 4 August across 51 provinces indicates that Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu would be ahead of President Erdoğan in hypothetical second-round, head-to-head contests.

The findings were published on 8 August 2026. The summary provided did not include vote-share figures, and it did not report any immediate response from political parties or officials.

How the survey was conducted and what it tested According to the published description According to the published description, the pollwork ran over four days and covered 51 provinces. It tested two separate, two-candidate runoff pairings against the incumbent president. In both matchups cited in the summary, the mayors were shown leading in those second-round scenarios. However, without percentages or margins in the available summary, the scale of the advantage and the sensitivity to turnout cannot be assessed from the information provided. Why the mayoral profiles matter in a runoff scenario Yavaş and İmamoğlu are the sitting mayors of Ankara and Istanbul. The survey description highlighted that this gives them concentrated support in major urban centres, which can be central to runoff calculations.

Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş

Even so, the survey summary also cautioned that a polling lead in a two-candidate second round is not, by itself, a guarantee of an election outcome. It noted that participation among urban undecided voters and support signals from smaller parties can be decisive in a runoff setting.

Potential political and market relevance cited in the summary The poll summary said that if such leads were to persist into the campaign period, it could change mobilisation strategies by affecting turnout assumptions and by shifting where resources are deployed to reach swing voters in key provinces.

It also flagged that a tightening race could prompt investors to reassess risk premia on the Turkish lira and on sovereign bonds. No immediate market moves were cited alongside the poll publication.

What is not yet known and what comes next At the time of the summary, official reactions were described as pending. The absence of published vote shares in the provided text also leaves uncertainty around the margin of lead and the distribution of support across provinces.

The summary pointed to two near-term reference points: statements from political parties and additional polling expected to be tracked through 10 August 2026.

Implications

Country Impact: The survey results, if reflected in further polling, could influence how political actors plan turnout and coalition-building in a runoff setting. The summary also underlined that endorsements from smaller parties and mobilisation of undecided urban voters may be pivotal.

Industry Impact: No sector-specific operational impacts were reported alongside the poll. The summary focused on potential shifts in campaign resource allocation toward swing voters in key provinces rather than any direct effect on businesses.

Market Impact: The summary noted that a tightening contest could lead investors to reassess risk premia on the lira and sovereign bonds. It did not report immediate market reactions, leaving the near-term financial impact uncertain.