U.S. Futures Drop as Oil Hits $100

U.S. stock index futures declined on Thursday, March 12, 2026, as escalating Middle East tensions drove oil prices to approximately $100 per barrel, intensifying inflation concerns and prompting a reassessment of U.S. interest rate cut expectations. Dow E-minis fell 0.55%, S&P 500 E-minis dropped 0.44%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis decreased by 0.44% by 4:49 a.m. ET.

The surge in crude prices followed reports of two tankers set ablaze in Iraqi waters after apparent Iranian strikes, part of broader attacks on oil and transport facilities in the region. This development led Goldman Sachs to delay its forecast for the Federal Reserve's next rate cut to September from June, with money markets now pricing in only one quarter-point cut by December. Airline stocks, sensitive to crude prices, are on track for their largest monthly losses in a year, with American Airlines and Southwest each down over 1% in premarket trading.

Simultaneously, the U.S. initiated two new trade investigations into 16 major trading partners regarding excess industrial capacity and forced labor. Additionally, concerns are rising in the approximately $2 trillion private credit market, with Morgan Stanley limiting redemptions from one of its private credit funds and JPMorgan Chase reducing the value of some loans to private credit funds.