U.S. Fertility Rate drops to historic low of 53.1 births

U.S. fertility rates fell to a new recorded low in 2025 , extending a long decline in births that has been underway since 2007, according to federal health data released on Thursday.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a fertility rate of 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in 2025. The CDC data showed this was a 1% drop from the prior year, marking the lowest level on record in the series cited.

The total number of births also edged down. The CDC data put births in 2025 at 3.6 million, about 1% lower than the year before. Over the longer span from 2007 to 2025, the data indicated births declined by nearly 23%.

Analysts linked the continued slide to economic pressures that affect household decisions, including higher costs for everyday expenses, housing, and childcare. The Economic Policy Institute highlighted the scale of childcare costs across states, estimating average annual childcare expenses near $22,000 in California and about $8,000 in Alabama.

The institute also quantified the burden relative to wages. It said a minimum-wage worker would need to work 33 weeks in California and 27 weeks in Alabama to cover childcare costs, underscoring the financial constraints facing families. These cost comparisons were presented as part of the broader explanation for why births have continued to trend lower.

The demographic shift has become a policy issue, with officials weighing different approaches to address birth rates. The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promoted efforts aimed at expanding access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments, positioning fertility services as one avenue to support family formation.

At the same time, the administration has advanced proposals that would reduce federal support for healthcare and social programs. President Trump’s budget request for fiscal year 2027 included $1.5 trillion in military spending, while also proposing that federal oversight of certain social programs be shifted to individual states, including daycare and Medicaid.

How these policy directions interact with household finances remains a key uncertainty, as the CDC data captures outcomes while the policy debate focuses on potential responses. For markets and governments, the figures add to ongoing attention on demographic change and the costs of raising children, with implications that can extend beyond the United States given the role of U.S. economic performance in global demand and investment conditions.