Trump says 'good chance' of progress

President Trump said on Monday there was a “good chance” of progress in talks with Iran, as the two sides marked a third consecutive day without fighting.

Officials said reactions were still pending, even as the pause in hostilities continued and diplomats and security officials tracked whether it would hold.

Pause began July 24 after 13 nights of renewed strikes Officials said the current lull started on July 24, 2026, after 13 nights of renewed US strikes that followed a breakdown linked to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

They added that the recent escalation came after an earlier uptick in strikes that dates to late February, when a wave of US and Israeli attacks widened the confrontation.

White House calls lull an opening for diplomacy

The White House described the pause as an opening for diplomacy, officials said, while Trump expressed hope that negotiations could deliver a negotiated end to the conflict.

Markets and regional capitals are monitoring the ceasefire for signs that it can endure, officials said, with attention focused on whether the pause turns into sustained de-escalation.

Shipping routes and insurance pricing in focus

Officials said a sustained pause would reduce the immediate geopolitical risk premium, with potential knock-on effects for oil shipping routes, insurance costs, and regional military postures.

Traders and insurers are watching shipping lanes and cargo insurance notices for any repricing tied to the security outlook around the Strait of Hormuz.

July 31 seen as an early test of durability Officials said attention is now on confirmation that negotiators have set a meeting date, or on any resumption of strikes by July 31, 2026.

They said developments before that date will help determine whether the lull hardens into lasting de-escalation or collapses into renewed strikes.