JPMorgan warns oil prices could spike by autumn if Strait of Hormuz stays closed

Oil prices could rise sharply by autumn if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to a JPMorgan analysis cited in the report.

The analysis says prices have so far been relatively stable even asourceser moving above $100 a barrel because a rapid drawdown of strategic and commercial inventories has helped cushion the market.

It estimates that about 280 million barrels have been consumed from global reserves since the conflict began, limiting the near-term price impact.

However, JPMorgan argues only a limited share of inventories can be tapped without creating operational strain. Of an estimated 8.4 billion barrels held across tankers, pipelines and storage, roughly 0.8 billion barrels are described as realistically accessible, including about 580 million barrels of readily available onshore inventories.

If those accessible reserves continue to be depleted, the analysis warns the market could enter a period of “operational stress” and broader instability. It points to risks including reduced pipeline-pressure flexibility, less efficient terminal loading, difficulty for refiners in sourcing specific crude grades, and more aggressive bidding for prompt supply—conditions that could break what it calls an “illusion of plenty” and trigger a rapid escalation in prices.