El Niño Signals Quieter Atlantic Hurricane Season

Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers said on April 9, 2026, that the Atlantic basin is likely to see a slightly below-average hurricane season, projecting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. The outlook covers the June through November period.

CSU said the main factor behind the forecast is the expected emergence of an El Niño pattern. Forecasters noted that El Niño conditions typically reduce Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by increasing wind shear across the basin, a setup that can hinder storm formation and limit intensification.

The projection, if it holds, would mark a shift from the elevated activity seen in recent years. CSU pointed to the past decade’s pattern, noting that only one season since 2016 has produced below-average storm counts.

CSU also referenced last year’s season as a reminder of forecast uncertainty. In 2025, the Atlantic recorded 13 named storms and five hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Melissa, according to the researchers. CSU’s first forecast for 2025 had called for 17 storms, which ultimately exceeded what occurred.

In describing the mechanism behind its 2026 outlook, CSU said El Niño is associated with warmer-than-average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and can reshape weather patterns well beyond that region. For the Atlantic, the key effect highlighted by the researchers is stronger wind shear, which can disrupt the organization of tropical systems and reduce the odds that storms strengthen into hurricanes.

CSU said El Niño is expected to build by mid-summer and remain in place through the heart of the season, including the peak window from mid-August to mid-October. That timing matters because the peak period is when the Atlantic historically produces a large share of its strongest storms, and wind shear during that window can materially influence outcomes.

At the same time, the researchers cautioned that ocean warmth can still support storm development even when El Niño is present. They pointed to 2023 as an example in which unusually warm ocean temperatures helped fuel storm formation despite El Niño’s typical suppressive influence.

Current ocean conditions were described as mixed. CSU said temperatures are warmer in the western tropical Atlantic, while parts of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic are cooler, leaving a more complicated backdrop for how the season ultimately evolves.