Strait of Hormuz reopening hinges on 60-day accord terms

Strait of Hormuz talks could yield a 60-day shipping accord this week, after President Trump said an announcement may come within 48 hours.

President Trump told reporters in Los Angeles on Tuesday night that an arrangement for the waterway could be announced quickly. Asked about reports of an imminent deal, he said, "It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day."

Trump said discussions with Iran were "moving along very nicely" and added, "We’ll know in 48 hours." The comments raised expectations that the US, Iran and Oman are nearing a temporary formula for one of the world’s most sensitive energy transit routes.

A 60-day lane proposal

Under the reported outline, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would resume under a 60-day arrangement. Inbound vessels would use a northern route close to Iran, while outbound traffic would move through Omani waters in coordination with the Islamic Republic, according to the proposal described in the source text.

The temporary plan would not impose tolls or fees during the transition period. Iran and Oman would also work on clearing mines from a central lane that could later support two-way commercial traffic.

The timing matters because the strait has become a military and commercial pressure point in the US-Iran confrontation. A short accord could reduce the immediate risk to tankers, insurers and energy buyers, but it would not settle the deeper dispute over control of the channel.

Oil market pressure eases

Signs of progress helped cool crude markets earlier in the week. The source text said the global benchmark crude contract was down about 9% since the start of the week as officials from Qatar and the US pointed to a possible resolution.

Brent futures later traded just above $80 a barrel on Wednesday, up 1%, after reversing an earlier decline. The rebound followed a threat by Yemen’s Houthi militants to intensify attacks on Middle East shipping.

The Iran-backed group said it would target Saudi tankers diverting toward the northern Red Sea. That route has become a key workaround when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, so renewed attacks there could limit the value of any Hormuz-only deal.

Qatar call and Iran concession

Trump discussed de-escalation with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani in a Tuesday call, according to the Gulf state’s government. A White House official confirmed the call but provided no additional details.

Iran is also considering allowing European nations to help remove mines from the strait, according to diplomats cited in the source text. That would mark a private softening from Tehran’s public position, though Iran’s foreign ministry did not immediately comment.

The main risk is durability. The previous US-Iran ceasefire lasted less than a month before breaking down over disagreements tied to control of Hormuz, showing how quickly shipping arrangements can collapse if military or political terms are disputed.

If the 60-day plan holds, the immediate macro effect would likely be lower risk premiums in energy markets, with shipowners and refiners gaining a clearer route for cargo planning. If talks fail, crude prices could face renewed pressure, Middle East shipping would remain exposed, and tanker diversions could shift disruption toward the Red Sea.

A third path is a narrow reopening without a wider political settlement. In that case, Hormuz traffic could improve temporarily, but mines, Houthi threats and unresolved US-Iran tensions would keep insurers, oil traders and regional governments focused on the next deadline rather than the current announcement.