Regional flu data point to earlier activity, not severity

Brandon Eilertson urges flu vaccination as Maryland and Virginia indicators rise above year-earlier levels, with severity still uncertain.

Maryland’s tracker recorded positive results in 5.15% of influenza tests for the week ending October 3, compared with approximately 2% a year earlier. Virginia’s tracker attributed 0.58% of emergency department visits to influenza in the week ending October 10, against approximately 0.11% in the comparable period a year before.

Those increases do not yet amount to high respiratory illness activity under the states’ classifications. Virginia’s tracker describes that activity as "low" but "trending up," while Maryland’s classification is "minimal."

Earlier flu signals leave severity unresolved

Brandon Eilertson, a local infectious disease physician, describes the timing this way: "We're definitely seeing things a little earlier than normal." His observation concerns when activity is appearing, not a determination of how severe the season will become.

For readers across Washington, Maryland and Virginia, the immediate distinction is between an earlier increase and a forecast of hospital demand. The available figures describe testing and emergency visits; they do not establish the eventual number of serious infections or how much pressure hospitals will face.

The state measurements also answer different questions. Maryland’s percentage concerns the share of influenza tests yielding positive results, whereas Virginia’s concerns the share of emergency visits involving a flu diagnosis; the two percentages are not interchangeable measures of illness across their populations.

National testing supports the regional signal

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that approximately 3.6% of influenza tests nationally were positive in early October, versus approximately 0.6% in the corresponding period a year earlier. That national comparison places the increases in Maryland and Virginia alongside a broader rise in test positivity.

The CDC’s published methodology indicates that the calculation used for influenza test positivity has not changed. Additional surveillance, including reports from outpatient settings, also points toward increasing flu activity, according to the CDC.

Children account for the highest share of medical visits involving influenza-like symptoms in the surveillance described. That measure concerns symptoms rather than necessarily a laboratory-confirmed infection, a distinction that matters when reading it alongside the test results.

Washington’s flu surveillance dashboard has not posted an update for the season described. The absence leaves the regional picture incomplete: the available state figures cannot establish whether the District is following the same pattern or at the same pace.

Vaccination advice precedes a severity assessment

Eilertson’s immediate recommendation is vaccination: "This is the time to get a vaccine." He also advises older adults and people with underlying medical conditions to consider wearing masks.

Other respiratory viruses present a different pattern in the CDC’s reporting. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity remains very low across most areas nationally, while COVID activity is elevated in some regions but decreasing nationwide.

If flu indicators continue rising, subsequent surveillance reports will be needed to establish whether the increase extends beyond early testing and visit measures. For now, Eilertson’s advice is to act on prevention without treating the earlier timing as proof of a more severe season.