Oil Surges as Trump Warns of Iran Strait Blockade

Global oil prices rose sharply on Sunday evening, April 12, after former U.S. President Donald Trump said a U.S. naval blockade was imminent targeting Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside reports that U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan did not succeed.

Following the announcement, Brent crude climbed to $102.29 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $104.56 per barrel. The move represented a gain of more than 7% on the session, and prices held around those levels into Monday.

The jump reflected market doubts about whether large-scale tanker traffic can resume through the Strait of Hormuz, which is widely viewed as a key chokepoint for global oil flows. The source material described the proposed U.S. blockade as an effort to stop Iran from exporting oil and to reduce Iran’s ability to use the strait as leverage, including through prior actions described as imposing tolls and limiting exports.

Analysts at Eurasia Group said the blockade announcement would likely further discourage shipping through the strait. They added that volumes could remain below 10% of pre-war levels, a dynamic they said would keep upward pressure on crude prices.

In the United States, the report said sustained higher crude prices could slow any near-term easing for consumers at the pump. Average regular gasoline prices were cited as having dipped slightly to $4.13 per gallon, and the same report linked the oil rally to a risk of delayed relief for drivers.

Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets said the approach could push China to take a more active role in negotiations if access to Iranian oil cargoes is put at risk. At the same time, the source material flagged uncertainty around how Tehran might respond, including the possibility of escalated attacks on regional energy facilities if the blockade threat becomes reality.