Nifty July bets build as macro pressures ease

Indian equity traders entered July expecting seasonal strength in the Nifty 50, with softer crude prices, a steadier rupee and reduced geopolitical stress supporting risk appetite. The benchmark ended Tuesday at 23,865.75 after gaining 1.35% in June, while the Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.1% and the Nifty Smallcap 250 advanced 4.3%.

Data compiled by Motilal Oswal Financial Services showed the Nifty and Nifty 500 have closed higher in July in eight of the past 10 years, with average gains of 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. Data also showed the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 250 have risen in eight of the past 10 July periods.

Nifty tests 24,300 resistance band

Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said July could remain positive after softer trading in May and June. He said that if the seasonal pattern holds, the Nifty 50 could gain another 500 to 700 points, equal to roughly 2% to 3% from current levels.

Sriram Velayudhan, senior vice-president at IIFL Capital Services, said the index has traded in a 23,000 to 24,300 range in recent weeks, with a retest of the upper band possible this month. He cited lower crude prices, calmer geopolitical conditions and monsoon improvement as potential catalysts.

Taparia said stabilising crude and rupee conditions could encourage investors to buy near-term declines, with the Nifty moving toward the 24,500 to 24,750 zone if support near 23,500 holds. The main uncertainty is whether foreign institutional selling and IT-sector weakness keep weighing on large-cap shares.

By July 31, 2026, the market test will be whether the Nifty has broken above 24,300 with broader participation from mid- and small-cap shares, or whether foreign selling pulls the index back toward 23,500.