Gold rises for third day above $4,100

Gold climbed for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, trading around $4,100 an ounce as signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz reduced inflationary pressure and lowered near-term Fed tightening odds. Data showed implied probability for a September rate increase slipped to about 57% from roughly 67% a day earlier, helping bullion regain ground.

Strait of Hormuz signals

Officials said negotiations were nearing an interim agreement to restore maritime traffic, a development that eased a premium on oil and, by extension, on headline inflation expectations. Lower oil-driven inflation typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, which can support prices when rate-hike probabilities fall.

The advance also rests on structural demand: the Bank of Korea signalled renewed purchases and Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds continued to attract inflows, data showed. That combination of central-bank buying and persistent institutional demand in Asia has helped establish a floor above $4,000 even as geopolitical risk ebbs.

Investors will focus on US labour market prints this week for further policy cues: private payrolls data are due before Friday and the non-farm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday, August 7, 2026. That sequence will be the next significant test of whether lower rate-hike odds hold and whether gold can sustain gains.