Iran ceasefire extension clouds markets as oil edges up

Developments around the Iran conflict and a fragile ceasefire continued to drive market and political attention on Tuesday, as the two-week truce approached its Wednesday expiry. Time-zone updates in the briefing placed it at 9.30am in Tehran, 9am in Jerusalem and Beirut, and 2am in Washington DC.

US President Donald Trump said he was unilaterally extending the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request while waiting for what he described as a “unified proposal” from Tehran. He said the ceasefire would be extended “until such time as [Iran’s] proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other,” even as the US military maintained its blockade of Iranian ports.

The announcement came as ceasefire talks were described as increasingly uncertain, with both countries saying they were prepared to resume fighting if no deal is reached. Iran had not yet decided whether to join negotiations in Pakistan, according to a foreign ministry spokesman earlier on Tuesday, and would only participate if Tehran believed the discussions would produce results.

Trump later wrote in a Truth Social post that Iran is “collapsing financially” and claimed it was losing $500m every day while the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. The briefing did not include an Iranian response to that claim.

Maritime security risks also remained in focus. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said a container ship reported being fired at by an IRGC gunboat. The incident was reported 15 nautical miles north-east of Oman, and the ship’s master said the vessel suffered “heavy damage” to its bridge, while all crew members were reported safe.

In markets, shares were mixed across Asia as investors weighed whether the US and Iran might resume talks. Oil prices moved in different directions: Brent crude edged up to $98.51 a barrel, while US benchmark crude fell 0.4% to $89.29 a barrel.

On the Israel-Lebanon front, Lebanese state media reported that one person was killed and two others wounded in an Israeli drone strike overnight on the outskirts of al-Jbour in Lebanon’s western Bekaa Valley. Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire on Friday.

Casualty figures cited in the briefing underscored the scale of the conflict. Since the war began, fighting has killed at least 3,375 people in Iran and more than 2,290 in Lebanon, according to the Associated Press. The same repoSources said 23 people have died in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, while 15 Israeli soldiers in Lebanon and 13 US service members across the region have been killed.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also issued a warning tied to regional energy infrastructure, threatening to prevent oil production in the Middle East if the Islamic republic faced attacks launched from Gulf neighbours’ territory. With the truce deadline nearing and Tehran still weighing whether to join talks in Pakistan, the immediate trajectory remained uncertain.