China's Exports Slow, Imports Hit Four-Year High

China’s trade picture shifted in March 2026 as export growth cooled sharply while imports accelerated to their fastest pace in more than four years, according to data released by China customs on Wednesday.

Exports rose 2.5% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, the customs data showed. That result marked a six-month low and came in below the 8.6% increase expected by analysts polled by Reuters. The March reading also represented a pronounced slowdown from the combined 21.8% jump recorded across January and February.

Imports, by contrast, surged 27.8% year-on-year in March, far above the 11.2% growth forecast. Customs data showed this was the strongest import growth since November 2021. It also accelerated from the 19.8% increase seen in the first two months of the year.

The trade surplus narrowed as the value of inbound shipments rose, with the overall surplus shrinking by 3%, the data showed. The combination of softer export momentum and a sharp rise in imports points to a notable change in the balance of trade flows during the month.

What happened is clear in the headline numbers: export growth slowed to a six-month low while imports posted their strongest expansion since November 2021. The customs release and the Reuters-polled expectations together highlight how the March outcome diverged from market forecasts on both sides of the ledger.

What it means for markets and policymakers is that China’s external accounts delivered a different mix than in the first two months of the year, with import strength doing more of the work in shaping the monthly trade profile. For global stakeholders, the figures matter because China is a central node in international supply chains and a major end-market for commodities and manufactured inputs, so changes in import and export growth can influence cross-border trade conditions.

Key uncertainties remain based on the information provided in the release: the data does not specify which product categories or trading partners drove the import surge, nor does it detail whether the export slowdown was broad-based or concentrated in specific sectors. The figures also do not indicate how much of the shift reflects price effects versus changes in volumes.

China customs’ March snapshot therefore shows a month in which import growth outpaced expectations by a wide margin while export growth undershot forecasts, resulting in a smaller trade surplus than before.