Anthropic IPO plans take focus as smaller US deals stall

Anthropic PBC’s potential IPO takes center stage as postponed offerings and tougher pricing discussions narrow the US listing pipeline.

A debut potentially arriving in November stands against a less certain schedule for other issuers, according to the report. Anthropic is reportedly targeting an offering comparable to or larger than SpaceX’s record flotation, although its timing and eventual proceeds remain unsettled.

The distinction matters: a large transaction can lift aggregate fundraising without demonstrating that investors are receptive to smaller companies. Bankers quoted in the report describe a market in which investor demand persists, but pricing discussions and preparations have become more difficult.

Large listings obscure a slower September

The report’s compiled figures put US IPO proceeds at $163 billion through October 15, exceeding the previous year’s total by more than threefold. Those figures exclude blank-check companies and other investment vehicles; offerings by SpaceX and South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix Inc. helped lift the total.

September offered a different comparison: five sizable issuers collected $1.9 billion, the weakest monthly showing since March, according to the same compilation. Activity slowed during a month when the yield on 10-year US government debt rose by more than 50 basis points.

Returns also complicate the fundraising picture. The report says seven of this year’s 10 biggest offerings were trading beneath their initial sale prices, contrasting with the more resilient performance it describes for SpaceX.

J.D. Moriarty, Bank of America Corp.’s vice chairman and global head of technology ECM, expects limited activity across the broader market even if a prominent issuer proceeds. “At the moment, investors are more focused on what they own than what bankers want to show them.”

Postponements meet the election calendar

Oura Inc., which makes smart rings, and Bamboo Insurance Services Inc. have deferred their listing plans, according to the report. SB Energy Inc. and Nscale Ltd. have submitted public filings without beginning formal investor marketing.

Those differing stages leave a gap between companies preparing to list and transactions ready for sale. The report places the delays against rising interest rates and the continuing Iran war, while bankers identify political uncertainty as another complication.

The November 3 US midterm elections add a scheduling constraint, with artificial-intelligence safety and data-center development featuring in policy discussions. David Bauer, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of equity capital markets for North America, said political and geopolitical uncertainties had increased over the preceding six weeks.

Pricing agreements could reopen the pipeline

Bankers’ assessments are not uniformly cautious. John Kolz, Barclays Plc’s global head of ECM, said investors continued to request information about prospective offerings despite concerns about recent IPO performance.

If Anthropic completes a large offering while smaller candidates remain sidelined, fundraising totals could strengthen without a broader reopening. Its debut would then demonstrate demand for that company rather than establish that other issuers can obtain acceptable valuations.

A wider recovery would require evidence beyond one transaction. Rob Stowe, Barclays’ head of Americas ECM, said successful pricing and subsequent trading by conventional IPO candidates would help restore activity, including offerings less closely associated with AI.

If companies instead postpone until early 2027, Bauer expects investor discussions and preparation to continue. The immediate tests are whether public filers begin marketing, whether issuers and buyers agree on price, and whether completed offerings sustain investor demand after trading begins.