Analysis from West Point warns that strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry

A recent analysis from West Point's Modern War Institute indicates that a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impair the United States' defense industrial capacity. Published on March 17, 2026, the report highlights critical vulnerabilities in the supply chain for essential minerals, particularly sulfur, which is crucial for extracting copper and cobalt.

These minerals are indispensable for manufacturing a wide array of military equipment, from advanced microprocessors to jet engines and drone batteries. The study specifically notes that sulfur, a byproduct of crude oil refining, has experienced a "near total" disruption in seaborne trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint responsible for half of global shipments.

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Exposed

The analysis details that this disruption has already led to a substantial price increase for sulfur, rising nearly 25% since the onset of the conflict and a staggering 165% year-on-year. Such a supply shock could precipitate a "prelogistical crisis," directly affecting the U.S. military's ability to repair and replace assets.

Previous military planning, according to the report, has not adequately addressed the potential for such extensive supply chain interruptions. The authors emphasize that the current "sulfur shock is becoming a copper problem, and that copper problem risks quickly becoming a readiness and resilience problem."

Impact on Military Readiness

For instance, replacing just two major U.S. radars damaged in Bahrain and Qatar would necessitate over 30,000 kilograms of copper. Thousands more kilograms would be required for other communication equipment that might sustain damage, underscoring the scale of potential material demand.

The report also points to a broader issue within the U.S. defense sector: a significant lack of transparency in contractor supply chains. Only 6% of U.S. defense contractors reportedly operate with fully transparent supply operations, complicating efforts to assess and mitigate these critical vulnerabilities.

Strategic Importance of the Strait

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is a globally critical maritime chokepoint. Its strategic importance stems from its role as the primary transit route for a substantial portion of the world's oil and gas exports, making any disruption a major concern for global energy markets and international security.

Historically, concerns over the Strait's security have prompted various nations to develop contingency plans, though the West Point analysis suggests these may be insufficient for a prolonged blockade impacting mineral supplies. The report underscores the interconnectedness of global trade, resource extraction, and national defense capabilities, urging a re-evaluation of strategic material reserves and supply chain resilience.

Implications

Country Impact: The United States faces potential challenges to its military readiness and defense industrial base, requiring a re-evaluation of strategic material stockpiles and supply chain resilience. This could lead to increased domestic production initiatives and diversification of import sources.

Industry Impact: The global defense industry, particularly in the U.S., could experience significant delays and cost increases in manufacturing and maintenance. Companies reliant on critical minerals like copper and cobalt may need to invest in more robust supply chain mapping and alternative sourcing strategies.

Market Impact: Commodity markets for sulfur, copper, and cobalt could see sustained price volatility and upward pressure. Energy markets would also be impacted by any prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global oil and gas prices and potentially leading to broader economic instability.