Altın Fiyatlarında Kritik Dönemeç: Dolar ve Jeopolitik Riskler Belirleyici

Gold prices moved higher over the week as the US–Iran track shifted into a temporary ceasefire, easing the geopolitical risk premium and coinciding with a pullback in the dollar index (DXY). The softer dollar supported broad strength across the precious-metals complex, according to the source material. Gold gained more than 1.5% on a weekly basis, highlighting its sensitivity to looser macro-financial conditions.

In spot terms, gold finished the week at 4,749 dollars per ounce. In Turkey, gram gold tested 6,881 before stabilising around the 6,811 area on a lira basis. The source describes a limited recovery in global risk appetite after the ceasefire, but says demand for gold as an alternative reserve asset was reinforced as the dollar weakened in both real and nominal terms.

The retreat in DXY was linked to two drivers cited in the text: a partial shift of safe-haven demand away from the dollar as tensions cooled, and rising expectations of interest-rate cuts in markets. The source also points to an accelerating decline in US Treasury yields, which reduces gold’s opportunity cost and can support upward price action. In this framing, the interaction between lower yields, a softer dollar, and reduced immediate geopolitical stress helped underpin the week’s move.

From a broader macro perspective, the source says the temporary easing of Middle East tensions helped limit downside risks to the global growth outlook. It also notes that expectations for central banks to move toward a more accommodative policy path strengthened, adding pressure on the dollar while providing a structural backdrop for gold demand. Even so, the durability of the ceasefire remains the key variable for risk premia and related asset pricing.

Technically, the 5,000 dollars per ounce level is described as a major resistance zone. The source states that for the current uptrend to continue, gold would need to break above 5,000 in a sustained way with strong volume. A period of consolidation above that threshold could set the stage for attempts at new highs, while failure to clear the area could invite selling pressure and raise the risk of a short-term correction.

Looking ahead, the source says direction in gold will continue to be shaped by the interplay among geopolitical developments, the trend in DXY, US real rates, and central-bank policy paths. It adds that the sustainability of the ceasefire—and the risk perception tied to it—stands out as a likely driver of pricing in the short and medium term.