AI trade steadies as chip rebound lifts global stocks higher

AI trade stocks rebounded Friday, led by chipmakers after a harsh monthly derating. SK Hynix hit its daily cap as futures rose.

The rally gave investors a cleaner finish to a month marked by a sharp repricing of one of the year’s most crowded market themes. The move centered on semiconductor shares, where anxiety over artificial intelligence spending had pushed valuations lower before buyers returned.

Seoul chip shares surge

Trading data cited for Friday showed South Korea’s Kospi Index up 18%, a move described in the source as unprecedented. SK Hynix Inc., a major memory-chip producer, reached the 30% daily limit, while Samsung Electronics Co. advanced as much as 27%.

The gains spilled into other markets. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was heading toward a record, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.1% and S&P 500 contracts added 0.4%, helped in part by Amazon.com Inc. after the company reported strong earnings.

The size of the Korean move mattered because memory chips sit close to the center of AI infrastructure demand. SK Hynix and Samsung supply components used in data centers, servers and advanced computing systems, making their share prices a high-speed gauge of investor confidence in AI capital spending.

AI valuations meet resistance

The rebound followed a selloff driven by doubts over whether the large sums being committed to AI infrastructure will produce matching returns. The concern is not only whether demand for AI computing remains strong, but whether profits can justify the pace of investment already reflected in share prices.

Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers framed the move as a reset rather than a clean return to easy gains. “The worst of the positioning washout is probably behind us,” he said. “On valuations, I would say they are more reasonable than a month ago, not cheap. So this is not the end of the AI trade, it is probably the end of its easy phase.”

That distinction is central for investors. A cheaper market is not necessarily a cheap one, and a rebound after forced selling can fade if earnings, guidance or order books fail to support the new price levels.

For SK Hynix, the immediate benefit is a reprieve from pressure on a stock closely tied to memory demand and AI server investment. For Samsung, the rally helps repair sentiment around a company watched across consumer electronics, semiconductors and global supply chains.

Yen slips after rate hold

Currency and bond markets told a more cautious story. The yen surrendered part of Thursday’s gain against the dollar after the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged, with the source account saying officials had entered the currency market only hours before the decision.

Treasuries advanced while oil extended losses, and the dollar rose 0.2%. Those cross-asset moves point to a market still balancing risk appetite in equities against demand for safety and lower energy prices.

The policy backdrop now matters for the next leg of the trade. Investors had also moved past a decision under new chair Kevin Warsh, according to the source, shifting attention from the event itself to whether the equity recovery can hold.

Three paths for the rebound

If AI earnings keep validating capital spending, the rebound could broaden from chip leaders into cloud, equipment and power-related suppliers. In that case, the macro effect would be stronger equity wealth and easier financial conditions, SK Hynix would benefit through firmer expectations for memory demand, and the semiconductor sector could regain pricing support.

If valuations rise faster than profit forecasts, the relief rally may become fragile. That path would tighten risk appetite globally, leave SK Hynix exposed to renewed questions about AI-linked demand, and force chip investors to separate companies with confirmed orders from those trading mainly on theme exposure.

If central-bank and currency pressures dominate, the chip bounce could be capped even without a direct earnings disappointment. A firmer dollar, volatile yen or falling oil prices would alter global capital flows, while SK Hynix and peers would face a market focused less on AI growth and more on policy, currencies and discount rates.