Government raises 2026 inflation forecast to 28.4%

The government's medium-term programme raised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 28.4 percent, a divergence from market expectations of 29.61 percent that analysts said could weigh on the lira.

Data showed the programme's projection trails the market view by 1.21 percentage points, and the document's household scenarios do not lift many projected incomes above the hunger threshold.

28.4 percent versus 29.61 percent gap

Officials said the updated forecast narrows the official narrative of disinflation while leaving room for disagreement with private forecasts. Analysts said that gap can complicate FX sentiment in an environment where expectations drive portfolio flows and currency pricing.

Data showed the programme included income and price scenarios for millions of households; those scenarios, the publication indicates, fall short of the minimum living benchmark used by social monitors. Observers said that mismatch could heighten political and social pressure on economic policy makers.

Markets will reassess positions ahead of year-end outcomes; investors will watch whether market expectations and official forecasts converge by December 31, 2026, and how that affects demand for foreign currency positions.