Yuan likely to move as China CPI rebounds

China's National Bureau of Statistics will release August consumer prices, with economists forecasting CPI of about 0.9% year-on-year, a print likely to prompt modest yuan moves.

That would be up from July's five-month low of 0.5% and, economists say, reflects food-price base effects — notably pork and vegetables — alongside firmer refined oil prices rather than a broad pickup in household demand.

Trade surplus widens to $119.1 billion

Data showed exports rose 25% year-on-year in August while imports climbed 28.2%, leaving the trade surplus at $119.1 billion and underscoring stronger external demand versus still-tepid domestic consumption.

Official PMI detail was mixed: the NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 from 49.2, with output and new orders returning to expansion, while the NBS non-manufacturing PMI held at 49.0 and construction remained weak; the private manufacturing gauge printed 51.5, extending a new-orders growth streak.

Producer prices are forecast to firm to about 3.2% year-on-year, continuing the easing of factory-gate deflation that traders watch as a sign of industrial demand stabilising.

Markets will watch the NBS inflation print due within 24 hours; analysts say a near-0.9% CPI would likely support the yuan modestly, while a softer-than-expected reading would renew pressure on the currency and could weigh on the Australian dollar.