Kalshi traders doubt quick Strait of Hormuz traffic recovery

Traders on the prediction-market platform Kalshi on May 27, 2026, priced in skepticism that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would return to “normal” within a month of any peace deal between Iran and the United States.

The betting reflected reports on Iranian state television suggesting traffic could recover to pre-war levels within one month of an agreement. The White House denied that any framework with Iran existed.

Kalshi’s contract defines “normal” flows as a seven-day moving average of transit through the strait crossing 60, based on IMF PortWatch data.

Odds rise from earlier levels, but stay below weekend highs

As of May 27, the market put the probability of a return to normal traffic by July 1, 2026, at 38%. That was up from roughly 32% before the latest reports, but still below the 50% odds recorded over the preceding weekend when a deal appeared more imminent.

The July contract’s lower pricing indicated that traders were not fully convinced Iran could restore operations quickly, even if a diplomatic agreement materialized.

Longer timeline draws more confidence

Traders were more confident that normalization would take longer, assigning 60% odds that traffic would return to normal by August 1, 2026. That was up from about 50% previously for the same period.

The shift in probabilities suggests participants see significant uncertainty around how quickly shipping can stabilize in the strategic waterway after any agreement, even as expectations improved modestly after the state-television report.

Markets will be watching for any confirmed diplomatic steps and for IMF PortWatch traffic data for signs that transit is trending back toward the contract’s “normal” threshold.