California Braces for Intense El Niño
A strong El Niño is increasingly likely to develop in the Pacific, raising expectations for an extreme rainy season in Southern California this winter.
Ayla Demirhan ·
Strong El Niño Expected for California
Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center announced on Thursday, May 14, 2026, an increased likelihood of a strong El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean, potentially leading to an extreme rainy season in Southern California. The probability of El Niño emerging in the coming months has risen to 82%, up from 61% a month prior.
Furthermore, there is a 96% chance that this climate pattern, characterized by warmer ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, will be active this winter.
Forecasters indicate a 37% chance that the upcoming El Niño will be "very strong" by year-end, an increase from the 25% forecast last month. Additionally, there is a 30% chance of a "strong" El Niño, a 22% chance of a "moderate" event, and a 9% chance of a "weak" one. Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, noted that several models suggest a substantial El Niño is probable.
El Niño, a climate pattern occurring every two to seven years and lasting nine to twelve months, is known to influence global weather, including rainfall and drought. A strong El Niño typically redirects a subtropical jet stream, increasing precipitation in Southern California and the southern United States. The World Meteorological Organization previously observed a clear shift in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures, signaling El Niño's imminent arrival and potential intensification.