Oil rises as Brent hits about $78.80 on Hormuz concerns
Brent rose from $71.90 to $78.80 as traders fear Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Meanwhile, HSBC has lowered its 2026 Brent price forecast to $80.
Mateo Fernandez ·
Oil prices jumped almost 10% this week after rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East spurred fears of a shipping disruption. Brent closed last Friday at $71.90 and traded near $78.80 this morning, traders said. HSBC said it lowered its 2026 Brent forecast to $80 from $95, citing an expectation that supply will return gradually to normal.
Brent near $79 level
Traders priced a higher risk premium on crude after market participants raised the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being disrupted; a closure would force tankers onto much longer routes and push freight costs higher. Officials said the prospect of interrupted flows tightened prompt physical markets and lifted front-month contracts.
HSBC's revision signals a split view: short-term upside driven by risk premia, longer-term relief if supply channels reopen. The bank said persistent logistical bottlenecks could sustain volatility even as fundamental balances ease.
Monitor developments through 15 July 2026 for decisive moves. Traders will watch regional statements and shipping updates for signs of whether the current premium retraces or becomes embedded in forward curves.