Oil prices rise as Trump doubts new Iran ceasefire deal

Oil prices climbed Monday after President Trump questioned another Iran ceasefire deal, with Brent above $91 as Treasury yields also rose.

The international benchmark later settled at $90.87 a barrel, up 2.65% from the previous close, after trading had been broadly flat earlier in the session. US crude ended at $84.50 a barrel, a 2.5% gain from its prior close, following the Oval Office remarks.

Trump said Iran wanted an agreement but not on terms he would accept. “They want to make a deal, but they’re not going to make the kind of a deal that I feel is necessary,” he said in the Oval Office.

Brent moves above $91

The price action put energy back at the center of a policy problem the White House has tried to contain: the link between Middle East military risk, shipping flows and consumer inflation. The administration has argued since the war with Iran began that crude would fall once fighting ends, but prices have moved unevenly since a 60-day memorandum of understanding was signed with Iran in June.

After retreating toward prewar levels in early July, crude has rebounded as the ceasefire deadline approaches without a confirmed extension. Higher oil prices support revenue for producers and exporters, while raising input costs for refiners, airlines, truckers and consumers exposed to fuel prices.

Hormuz traffic thins

Trump also asserted that US forces “control” the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf with global markets. He referred to a US naval blockade along Iran’s coastline and said, “We have total control over the strait.”

The president also described the waterway as “open.” MarineTraffic data showed three ships crossed the strait on Sunday, down from 10 on Saturday and far below the prewar average of about 130 crossings a day.

For the week, traffic through the strait was 19.5% lower than the prior week, which was already below normal, according to the shipping data. That drop matters beyond oil: fewer crossings can tighten delivery schedules, lift insurance costs and push more cargo owners to delay shipments rather than price risk in real time.

Bond yields test 2007 levels

The move in oil coincided with higher Treasury yields, a channel that can feed quickly into mortgages, auto loans and corporate borrowing costs. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.72%, near its session high, after Trump’s comments.

The 30-year US government bond yield moved above 5.3%, its highest level since June 2007, a marker that predates the global financial crisis. Bond yields rise when prices fall, so the move indicated lower demand for long-dated government debt at the end of the session.

Stocks also weakened into the close, though the declines were narrower than the moves in oil and long bonds. The S&P 500 finished down 0.5% from the prior close, while the Nasdaq Composite ended about 0.3% lower.

Ceasefire terms drive scenarios

If Washington and Tehran extend the memorandum on terms the White House accepts, the immediate mechanism would be lower perceived risk around Gulf shipping and a steadier path for crude supply. That would ease one source of pressure on global inflation, give the White House a policy win on energy prices and reduce the risk premium facing shippers and refiners.

If the ceasefire expires without a replacement, the mechanism runs in the other direction: fewer ships through Hormuz, higher freight and insurance costs, and more volatile crude benchmarks. That path would complicate the global inflation picture, expose the White House to higher fuel-price criticism and leave energy-intensive industries managing costs that can change by the hour.

A third path is a nominal extension with limited shipping recovery, leaving markets to trade around vessel counts rather than diplomatic language. The main open questions are whether Iran accepts terms Trump considers sufficient, whether Hormuz traffic returns toward prewar levels, and whether the rise in yields persists beyond Monday’s session.