Oil holds highs as Trump weighs Iran decision

Oil held near one-month highs on Tuesday as President Donald Trump neared a reported decision between backing a 10-day ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and pursuing a broader joint campaign with Israel against Iran. Gold rose 1%, while South Korea’s Kospi climbed 4.00% intraday, led by gains in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics.

Hormuz risk drives crude repricing

Officials said the US launched a 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while a Saudi-led coalition warned it would respond with force to a Houthi threat against naval traffic. UK military authorities reported a fresh tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy security at the center of the market reaction.

Iranian military sources said missile and drone strikes targeted US-linked defense systems in Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also said two tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz and declared the strait closed, claims that raise the risk premium on crude even where physical supply disruption remains unclear.

A bank forecast cited in the market summary said Brent could rise above $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and average $100 in 2027 if Hormuz disruption persists. The mechanism is direct: higher shipping risk raises insurance, rerouting and supply costs, feeding inflation pressure and complicating rate decisions.

By July 31, markets will be watching whether the reported 10-day ceasefire track reopens Hormuz traffic or whether US and Israeli operations expand. A ceasefire would likely cool crude and gold; a wider campaign would test energy importers, airlines and refiners first.