Wegovy Pill Faces Uphill Battle After Lilly's Rival Drug Approved

Novo Nordisk is seeing brisk early demand for its new oral Wegovy weight-loss medicine, but investors are watching whether the launch can hold up as competition intensifies and U.S. prices come under pressure.

The Danish drugmaker is set to report first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, May 6. A key focus will be early sales indicators for the oral Wegovy pill, including whether rising prescription volumes can help Novo regain momentum in the obesity-drug market.

Earlier projections that the global obesity-drug market could reach $150 billion in annual sales early in the next decade are being reassessed as competition increases and prices fall in the United States.

Novo has faced a tougher backdrop over the past year, including disappointing trial results for a next-generation obesity drug, outlook reductions and a leadership change. Its market valuation has fallen by more than $400 billion from its 2024 peak, returning to around the level seen when Wegovy received U.S. approval in June 2021.

Early prescription data

Prescriptions for Novo’s oral Wegovy pill have exceeded initial expectations. BMO Capital Markets, citing U.S. prescription tracking, said about 721,000 prescriptions were recorded in the first quarter.

However, Novo’s window as the only oral obesity pill in the U.S. market closed in early April, when Eli Lilly received regulatory approval for its rival pill, Foundayo.

Analysts have cautioned that strong prescription volumes may not translate directly into revenue. Around 450,000 of the first-quarter prescriptions were for the lower-priced 1.5 mg starter dose. BMO Capital Markets estimated first-quarter pill revenue could come in about 12% below the consensus estimate of $1 billion.

Investors will look to Novo’s earnings report for greater clarity on early demand, pricing and how the company plans to compete as the market becomes more crowded.