Major banks cut 2026 gold forecasts

HSBC, Bank of America and JPMorgan lowered their 2026 gold price forecasts, officials said on July 12, 2026, pointing to expectations for sustained Fed interest-rate levels and a firmer dollar. Reaction pending.

Reasons cited for cuts

Officials said the shifts apply to near- and mid‑2026 outlooks rather than to decade-long scenarios. The banks flagged central-bank rate expectations and currency strength as primary transmission channels that can suppress gold’s traditional attraction as an inflation hedge when real yields rise.

What markets should watch next

Officials said the banks attribute the downward revisions to two linked forces: a Fed policy path that, in their view, keeps real yields elevated, and a stronger US dollar that raises the local-currency cost of bullion for many buyers. The institutions nevertheless preserved their longer-term bullish cases, saying structural demand drivers still support upside beyond 2026.

The banks’ revisions narrow near-term price envelopes and could reduce speculative positions in precious-metals desks, officials said. Watch how dollar moves and Fed commentary evolve through the month: a reassessment of rate expectations by July 31, 2026, could prompt another round of forecast changes and influence commodity positioning.