Strait of Hormuz Lockout Threatens 20% of World Oil

Parliament speaker Muhammed Bakır Kalibaf said on Oct. 4 that Hürmüz Boğazı will not reopen until seven conditions agreed in a June memo are satisfied, and linked the timetable to indirect negotiations with the United States.

Seven conditions from June agreement

Kalibaf said “Pozisyonumuz açık” and reiterated that the 2026 June memorandum requires seven items to be completed before maritime access is restored, without listing the conditions. Officials provided the remarks in a parliamentary statement, according to the speaker’s office.

The comments tie the status of one of the world’s busiest oil chokepoints to a diplomatic track. Traders and governments treat closures or restricted passage through Hürmüz Boğazı as a direct supply risk because roughly one-fifth of seaborne-traded oil flows through the strait on a typical day, data show.

Markets will watch whether Tehran publishes the conditions or signals flexibility. Officials have framed progress as contingent on reciprocal steps spelled out in the June memo; Kalibaf’s statement makes reopening conditional rather than imminent.

Expect attention to escalate in the coming days: watch for any formal list or follow-up statement within 72 hours (by Oct. 7, 2026).