Goldman Sachs warns global oil stocks near eight-year low as Hormuz disruptions tighten supply

Global oil inventories are nearing their lowest level in eight years, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, warning that the pace of stock draws is becoming a concern as supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted.

Oil prices jumped about 6% on Monday asourceser incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iran striking several ships and setting a UAE oil port ablaze, heightening worries about supply disruptions.

Goldman estimated total global oil stocks were equivalent to 101 days of global demand and could fall to 98 days by the end of May. The bank said it was unlikely that total global stocks would hit minimum operational levels this summer, but added that the speed of depletion — alongside supply losses in some regions and product categories — is concerning.

Refined product buffers also shrinking

Goldman estimated global commercial refined product inventories have fallen to 45 days of demand, from 50 days before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The bank said easily accessible refined product buffers are fast approaching very low levels, adding to the risk of tighter market conditions if disruptions persist.