Global diesel supply tightens ahead of winter

Officials said global diesel supply has tightened ahead of winter as outages in Russia and the Middle East reduced refined product flows, leaving inventories close to seasonal lows.

Russia and Middle East outages

Officials estimated the lost flows at about 4 million barrels a day, and sector managers said commercial diesel stocks have been drawn down sharply since the summer. Officials attributed the shortfalls to refinery outages and supply-chain disruptions in producing regions, they said.

Sector managers said the stock declines have already put upward pressure on spot differentials and regional premiums, and officials warned the move could squeeze refining margins in export hubs. Sector managers added refiners may prioritise domestic supply over shipments, which would tighten available diesel volumes in import-dependent markets.

Officials said tight supply, combined with the run-up to seasonal heating demand, could keep price pressure elevated through the pre-winter buying season. Sector managers said logistical bottlenecks and rerouting of shipments are complicating attempts to rebuild inventories.

Officials said stocks could reach seasonal lows by November 1, 2026.