Oil Giants Profit from Mideast Tensions

European oil majors BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies reported that trading delivered a major earnings lift in the first quarter of 2026, as energy markets swung sharply amid the Iran war. Officials and company statements pointed to heightened volatility in crude, fuels, gas, and derivatives as a key driver of results, with the three firms generating at least $2.5 billion in trading profits over the period.

The conflict, involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, has disrupted oil and gas infrastructure and affected shipping through the Hormuz Strait, contributing to large price moves. The companies’ trading operations—staffed by hundreds of specialists—were positioned to buy and sell across multiple commodities and to take market positions, allowing them to translate rapid shifts in pricing into earnings.

BP described its oil trading performance as “exceptional,” while Shell and TotalEnergies also flagged strong trading outcomes. TotalEnergies said it expects a significant boost to its first-quarter earnings from trading activity, even as it reported a 15% reduction in production linked to the conflict.

In contrast, U.S. majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron were described as using trading mainly to improve the efficiency of their internal networks and flows, rather than to pursue gains from extreme market moves. That approach was characterized as favoring predictability over capturing outsized returns during periods of sharp volatility.

The divergence in strategy has been reflected in equity performance since the conflict began in late February. Shares of the European majors have risen over that period, while shares of Exxon Mobil and Chevron have declined, according to the report.

Norway’s Equinor also said trading would support earnings, citing oil price volatility and spikes in European gas prices. The developments underscore how disruptions tied to the Hormuz Strait and regional infrastructure can quickly transmit into global benchmarks for oil and gas, affecting corporate results and investor sentiment across major energy markets.

Key uncertainties remain tied to the duration and intensity of the conflict and the extent of ongoing disruption to infrastructure and shipping routes. Companies have highlighted trading performance for the first quarter, but the report did not provide a full breakdown of how much of the earnings impact came from specific commodities or regions.