A360
Key Takeaways✦ Atlas AI
01
Bombing ineffective for regime change.
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Popular uprising deemed essential.
03
Protests expected after bombing ends.
Atlas AI
-Israeli military actions against Iran will not lead to the overthrow of the clerical leadership, emphasizing that only a popular uprising supported by internal resistance can achieve this outcome. This assessment comes after nearly two weeks of bombing, which has resulted in approximately 2,000 fatalities, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and significant damage to Iran's military and security infrastructure.
Mohammad Mohaddesin, head of foreign policy for the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), asserted that previous and current bombing campaigns, including the 12-day war in June and the current 12-day conflict, demonstrate the ineffectiveness of aerial bombardment in regime change. Iran has retaliated, causing disruptions in global energy markets and transportation, and expanding the conflict across the Middle East.
Concurrently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reportedly consolidated power and threatened to suppress any internal dissent.
Mohaddesin indicated that mass protests, similar to those in January 2026 that were violently suppressed, are likely to resume once the bombing ceases. He suggested these protests could eventually shift the balance of power, leading to the regime's downfall, though he did not specify a timeframe. Israeli officials have previously stated that one objective of their actions is to weaken Iran's security apparatus to empower the populace.
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